This report presents the results of the endline analysis of the impact of the Peace through Development (PDEV II) program on a series of outcomes related to countering violent extremism and strengthening community resilience in Chad, Niger, and Burkina Faso. We use a combination of survey data, program activity trackers and quarterly reports, and qualitative data collected in all of the zones in which the PDEV II program was active in the three countries. The evaluation consists of the analysis of data from baseline surveys conducted in each of the three countries in 2013 along with new interviews conducted in 2015-2016 and 2017 in order to determine whether PDEV II activities led to changes in community and individual-level outcomes corresponding to the primary goals of the program: improving social cohesion, resilience to violent extremism, and improving the educational and employment outlook for youth. The basic design of the impact evaluation consists of comparisons between core zones and non-core zones in Chad, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Core zones are areas that were designated by International Relief and Development (IRD), the implementing entity for PDEV II, and USAID for exposure to the full array of PDEV II program activities, while non-core zones are areas that received only the program’s media treatments, primarily radio programming related to good governance and countering violent extremism among youth.
The program was initially expected to operate in a total of 83 zones in the three countries. Yet, 11 of those zones either failed to receive radio signal or received
radio signal in the last month of the program. We refer to those zones as ‘no-activity zones.’ Of the remaining 72 zones, 38 core zones were exposed to the full array of program activities, while 34 non-core zones received only the program’s media treatments. Baseline survey data was collected in 2013 on 7,720 respondents in the 83 zones, following procedures described in Finkel et al. (2014). Mid-line survey data was collected in 2015-2016 on 2,577 respondents in the same 83 zones. Endline survey data was collected in 2017 on 7,888 respondents in the same 83 zones as well as 2 additional nonactivity zones.
The longitudinal structure of the data allows for estimation of "difference-in-differences" (DiD) in program outcomes, that is, over time comparison of the changes in
programrelevant outcomes in core zones and changes in program-relevant outcomes in non-core zones from the baseline interviews to the endline. The DiD represents the estimated effect that can be attributed to the non-radio potion of PDEV II programming. This basic comparison between core and non-core zones regarding changes over time is then supplemented with more nuanced analyses. First, we make use of the quarterly PDEV II activity trackers to determine which zones in each country received more and less extensive programmatic activities, as measured by the amount of dollars allocated to 1 Steven E. Finkel, Reynaldo Rojo Mendoza, Cassilde Schwartz, Chris Belasco, and Aaron Abbarno. 2014. “Baseline Report for Impact Evaluation of the Peace through Development Program II (PDEV II) in Chad, Niger, and Burkina Faso.” Report submitted to USAID/West Africa. Those non-activity zones are Assinet in Chad and Dan Issa in Niger. Peace through Development II Impact Evaluation Endline Report 14 each target zone, and we attempt to ascertain whether the intensity of PDEV II activities is associated with stronger or weaker program impact. Second, we conduct analyses of program impact on measures of support for violent extremism that are gauged with innovative "list" and "endorsement" experimental methods designed to overcome potential social desirability biases associated with responses to sensitive questions. Finally, we conducted an extensive series of qualitative interviews and focus groups in order to supplement the quantitative analyses and arrive at a more nuanced understanding of potential program impacts.