What factors contribute to youth exclusion and increase the likelihood of youth engagement in violence? How can DFID effectively address issues of youth exclusion and violence? This report from Social Development Direct examines existing evidence and analysis on the links between youth exclusion, violence, conflict and fragile states. It highlights factors which can contribute to youth violence, and makes recommendations for DFID’s work on youth exclusion and violence.
There is statistical evidence of a link between high relative youth populations and an increased risk of armed conflict. Structural models which forecast these risks combined with early-warning systems that monitor known trigger factors can therefore help identify countries with higher risks of violence. However, statistical relationships have their limitations. They cannot be used as a sole predictor of conflict in specific areas and reveal little about the causal processes at work. It is also important that youth are not generally viewed as a security ‘threat’.